1. Nz_Slimeables

    Nz_Slimeables Well-Known Member

    Nz_Slimeables
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    By the way, @LunarZeta
    you should investigate Kt because if he's not Alien, he's confirmed town ;3
     
    #6421
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  2. Okay, this is my confession: I have already used up all of my shots.

    I shot Shamen Night 2, Totoro_ Night 3, and Serendipity Night 4.

    The reason why I WIFOMed that I had either 0 or 1 shots left was to bait scum into fearkilling me at night. Tmi, Lunar, and Peachy were all investigative roles that I wanted to live; since I have no more shots left, I would rather have died in place of Tmi.

    Part of my bait was saying that I would do my analysis the following day, so that scum might kill me before I try to contribute more to Town discussion. If I live tonight, I'll do one the next day. I don't have much time to do one right now.
     
    #6422
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  3. [VOTE]xProScrublord[/VOTE]
    Bye bye, Mafia/Werewolf Neighbor.

    KT could very well be Alien Mason. Maybe he's laughing his ass off at our paranoia against those we believe to be recruited. But that's for another time.

    Now, we lynch the Neighbor who hasn't been contributing all game. Scum confirmed.
     
    #6423
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  4. Nz_Slimeables

    Nz_Slimeables Well-Known Member

    Nz_Slimeables
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    Interesting that you weren't the one to kill dwlee. He was basically a VT at that point.

    maybe he was suspecting someone and they got scared?
     
    #6424
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  5. Aidan1600904

    Aidan1600904 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,790
    With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch!

    [L-2] xProScrublord: 4 (KT_Mafia_Alt, DatGamer, LunarZeta, cahillguy)
    [L-5] KT_Mafia_Alt: 1 (xProScrublord)

    Not Voting: MostLukelyToSucceed, Skullmaster4, Nz_Slimeables, TheEmpireStrafesBack, Sharc0vitz

    Day 9 will end in 33 hours!
     
    #6425
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  6. Before y'all hammer, the following questions need to be answered:

    @TheEmpireStrafesBack do you suspect @KT_Mafia_Alt to be Alien Mason? And do any one of you suspect the other to have been Alien Recruited? Please look back at your Mason chat, and say what's on both your minds. (I forgot if KT was Masonized; if he was, disregard the first question.)
     
    #6426
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  7. Also, tomorrow we lynch MostLukelyToSucceed. I strongly FoS him as WW 2-Shot DayVig.

    Luke, you may as well shoot me now. You might be killed tonight, so shoot me.

    JUST DO IT
     
    #6427
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  8. Nz_Slimeables

    Nz_Slimeables Well-Known Member

    Nz_Slimeables
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    KT was a Mason from day 1, Dragon was the one that was Masonized
     
    #6428
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  9. Thank you. Therefore:

    @LunarZeta it is utterly imperative that you check KT the next night. Our odds of winning depend on this.

    Mafia and Werewolves, you'd be wise to let Lunar live. The last Alien is your enemy; remember that in any 1v1 at the end, the Alien wins.
     
    #6429
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  10. Freeloading

    Freeloading Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    Even said that my role is useless and can't do anything but vote :/ There really isn't any way of be contributing other than voting
     
    #6430
  11. Spark68

    Spark68 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    It is possible I suppose, but my read on him is more town. That's just personal opinion, though.
     
    #6431
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  12. Spark68

    Spark68 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    I made the post that finished off Machine without any help from my role whatsoever. That statement is completely invalid, and even a new player should know it.
     
    #6432
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  13. Freeloading

    Freeloading Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,967
    I wasn't even quoting you what are you even talking about
     
    #6433
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  14. Spark68

    Spark68 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
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    I was pointing out that your post was completely untrue. That is all.
     
    #6434
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  15. KT_Mafia_Alt

    KT_Mafia_Alt Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    420
    Lunar can invest me but I'm pretty sure there's an alien recruiter *since it wasn't discarded* and odds are this game wouldn't of been picked if there was a mass director, rolecop, Mason and recruiter that would be pretty op not gonna lie.

    But I'm totally fine with him investing me though I just wanted to point that out
     
    #6435
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  16. Nz_Slimeables

    Nz_Slimeables Well-Known Member

    Nz_Slimeables
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    Well if he checks you, we can confirm what Aliens arent in the rolelist and we can find ones that are :3
     
    #6436
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  17. ^
    @xProScrublord . If you are really Town, you would do better than that. A real Townie would give reasons and make a proper case for voting someone, as well as giving an actual defence. You have done neither.

    Instead, all you have done is made a naked OMGUS vote on KT (i.e. voted him just because he voted you). Moreover, you said that he was a "WW", which is impossible since he's in the Masonry. If anything, he could be an Alien, but you haven't even kept up with that.

    So, tell us. Why should we lynch KT over you? Who do you think is a better lynch than you?
     
    #6437
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  18. Vote Count Analysis, with personal reads

    Code:

    Almost Certainly Town: DatGamer, TheEmpireStrafesBack, Cahillguy, LunarZeta
    WIFOM Town/Scum: Nz_Slimeables (or Skullmaster4)
    Likely Werewolf: MostLukelyToSucceed, Sharc0vitz
    Likely Alien: KT_Mafia_Alt
    Likely Mafia: xProScrublord, Skullmaster4 (or Nz_Slimeables)
    Doublevoter: XCVigilance
    Deceased Mafia: The_Machine_5000, 10000 Jelly Doughnuts, Taboo, Serendipity
    Deceased Town: Mitochondria, Dinodudedude, Shamen, Totoro_, Ryast, XCVIII, weeaboo, Dom, DragonKing87, SupremeCourt, Grones, Terrabyte, bayleef0909, Sorcerer_Zero, Tmi489, XCVigilance, dwlee99
    Deceased Werewolf: ISkippey17, MuteMice
    Deceased Alien: Piano, Peachy


    Name changes:
    Creeperboy219 = KT_Mafia_Alt
    WorsePlayerWorseName = Tmi489
    Lukeandmatthew = MostLukelyToSucceed

    Replacements:
    dudebo99 -> Dom
    HarrisonAF -> xProScrublord

    Day 1:
    Totoro_: 1 (Taboo)
    [L-Y-N-C-H] ISkippey17: 17 (Cahillguy, XCVIII, HarrisonAF, Sharc0vitz, Shamen, LunarZeta, Piano, XCVigilance, DatGamer, Nz_Slimeables, Dinodinodude, Ryast, Totoro_, Lukeandmatthew, WorsePlayerWorseName, dudebo99)
    10000 Jelly Doughnuts: 3 (Creeperboy219, ISkippey17, Mutemice)
    TheEmpireStrafesBack: 1 (DragonKing87)
    ~~~
    ISkippey17 has been lynched! She was the... Werewolf Supersaint

    Day 2:

    Totoro_: 1 (Taboo)
    >> The_Machine_5000: 7 (DragonKing87, Dudebo99, TheEmpireStrafesBack, Shamen, LunarZeta, cahillguy, DatGamer)
    DragonKing87: 2 (Terrabyte, KT_Mafia_Alt)
    >>> No Lynch: 8 (Skullmaster4, The_Machine_5000, Nz_Slimeables, Ryast, Peachy, Dwlee99, Totoro_, bayleef0909)

    Day 3:
    Serendipity: 1 (SupremeCourt)
    > Mutemice: 2 (Sharc0vitz, Ryast)
    > WorsePlayerWorseName: 2 (10000 Jelly Doughnuts, xProScrublord)
    [L-Y-N-C-H]10000 Jelly Doughnuts: 13 (KT_Mafia_Alt, DragonKing87, weeaboo, LunarZeta, TheEmpireStrafesBack, DatGamer, Nz_Slimeables, Dwlee99, Taboo, XCVigilance, Sharc0vitz, Piano)
    > xProScrublord: 2 (Bayleef0909, WorsePlayerWorseName)
    Taboo: 1 (Dom)
    ~~~
    10000 Jelly Doughnuts has been lynched! She was the... Mafia 2-Shot Neighborizer (Lynch failed, but was shot by Sharc0vitz the Town 1-Shot Vigilante[?] in Night 3)

    Day 4:
    [L-Y-N-C-H] Mutemice
    : 5 (Sharc0vitz, weeaboo, xProScrublord, TheEmpireStrafesBack, Taboo)
    Taboo: 3 (DragonKing87, XCVIII, DatGamer)
    Serendipity: 3 (Piano, cahillguy, KT_Mafia_Alt)

    Not Voting: MostLukelyToSucceed, dwlee99, Skullmaster4, Nz_Slimeables, SupremeCourt, WorsePlayerWorseName, XCVigilance, Peachy, Dom, Grones, Terrabyte, bayleef0909, Mutemice, Serendipity, Sorcerer_Zero, LunarZeta
    ~~~
    Mutemice has been lynched. He was the... Werewolf Supersaint
    That means Taboo dies as well! He was the... Mafia Goon


    Day 5:
    Piano: 1 (DragonKing87)
    [L-Y-N-C-H]Dom: 4 (cahillguy, WorsePlayerWorseName, TheEmpireStrafesBack, DatGamer)
    Skullmaster4: 3 (KT_Mafia_Alt, dwlee99, Dom)

    Not Voting: MostLukelyToSucceed, Skullmaster4, Nz_Slimeables, SupremeCourt, LunarZeta, XCVigilance, Peachy, Grones, Terrabyte, bayleef0909, Sharc0vitz, xProScrublord, Sorcerer_Zero, Piano
    ~~~
    Dom has been lynched. He was the... Town Nurse

    Day 6:
    >> xProScrublord: 2 (TheEmpireStrafesBack, KT_Mafia_Alt)
    Skullmaster4: 1 (LunarZeta)
    KT_Mafia_Alt: 1 (Terrabyte)
    [L-Y-N-C-H] Grones: 2 (dwlee99, xProScrublord)
    MostLukely: 1 (Nz_Slimeables)
    dwlee99: 1 (Piano)
    > Sorcerer_Zero: 2 (bayleef0909, cahillguy)

    Not Voting: MostLukelyToSucceed, Skullmaster4, XCVigilance, Peachy, Grones, Sharc0vitz, Sorcerer_Zero, TMI489, DatGamer
    ~~~
    Grones has been at two votes the longest, so he is lynched! He was the... Town Mason

    Day 7:
    dwlee99: 1 (TMI489)
    [L-Y-N-C-H] Sorcerer_Zero: 9 (cahillguy, XCVigilance, Piano, dwlee99, TheEmpireStrafesBack, Nz_Slimeables, MostLukely, xProScrublord)
    xProScrublord: 1 (KT_Mafia_Alt)

    Not Voting: Skullmaster4, LunarZeta, Peachy, Sharc0vitz, DatGamer, Sorcerer_Zero
    ~~~
    Sorcerer_Zero has been lynched. He was the... Town 1-Shot Bulletproof

    Day 8:
    [L-Y-N-C-H] Peachy
    : 7 (LunarZeta, dwlee99, TheEmpireStrafesBack, Sharc0vitz, XCVigilance, cahillguy)

    Not Voting: MostLukelyToSucceed, KT_Mafia_Alt, Skullmaster4, Nz_Slimeables, Peachy, xProScrublord, DatGamer
    ~~~
    Peachy has been lynched. She was the... Alien Role Cop
     
    #6438
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  19. Meta-analysis of our situation:

    [Town-Mafia-Werewolves-Aliens]
    (Assume no Alien Recruiter.)

    Out of 35 total players, I believe the teams are split into 22-6-4-3.
    Dead players are at 17-4-2-2.

    Why should scum be split as 6-4-3? Well, we know that the order of size should be Mafia > Werewolves > Aliens.
    Mafia should be rather bigger than the other two factions.
    Werewolves are powerful, but not as powerful as Aliens, so there are almost certainly more WWs than Aliens.
    There have been 3 Super Kills, so there are (at least) 3 Aliens. (Any more would make them OP.)

    There were 2 kills Night 8, so therefore:
    There is at least 1 Mafia, and 1 Werewolf left.
    Also, 2 out of 3 Aliens have died, so there is at least 1 Alien left.

    There are 10 of us currently alive.
    There are 4 definite Town members fmpov.
    The split between the 10 is probably this: 5-2-2-1

    This basically puts us at lylo (lynch or lose).

    Explanation of reads, with claims:

    Town:
    DatGamer: Confirmed Innocent Child.
    TheEmpireStrafesBack: Confirmed Town 1-Shot Weak Masonizer, used ability on Dragon.
    Cahillguy: Confirmed innocent by Cop dwlee, and CT Lunar. The Town 3-Shot Vigilante who killed Shamen Night 2, Totoro_ Night 3, and Serendipity Night 4.
    LunarZeta: The Town Conspiracy Theorist who found Peachy as an Alien and got her lynched. Also made this post, which was the catalyst for the lynch on Machine.

    WIFOM Town/Scum:
    Nz_Slimeables: Claimed Town Retired Werewolf Hunter, a highly WIFOM claim. On the one hand, he could be telling the truth - he has been active, and acting fairly townie. On the other hand, he claimed this to deter a WW kill on him, since he's one of the last scum. Hell, he could even be a WW himself, which would explain why he can't die to them! I have a gut feeling he is the Mafia Governor though; he did vote for Jelly Day 3, which of course failed. This "gut feeling" is based off of other people having other likelier roles.

    Likely Werewolf:
    MostLukelyToSucceed: Confirmed to be a DayVig who shot Machine Day 3, so he could either be a Town 1-Shot Day Vigilante, or more likely: Werewolf 2-Shot Day Vigilante. Why? If he was Town, I'd say he would've immediately failed a daykill as soon as we asked him to. Furthermore, I don't think he has been contributing much to Town discussion, with no TRs/SRs on anyone.
    Sharc0vitz: Claimed Town 1-Shot Vigilante who killed Jelly Night 3, and claimed his shot here. However, if you read who died Night 3 (in Aidan's D4 start post), it was Totoro_ (who I shot), Jelly (who Sharc killed), and Ryast (the Mafia kill). Weeaboo followed Sharc the same night and said he performed a killing action. This means that Sharc was forced to claim 1-Shot Vig as the only means of possibly being Town. Moreover, he has barely contributed to Town discussion, nor has he been able to scumread anyone. It is extremely likely that Sharc is the WW who killed Jelly - after all, 2 Town Vig shots in the same night are unlikely, especially with 'no WW kill'. (Obviously Mafia killed Ryast - they can't kill themselves!)

    Likely Mafia:
    xProScrublord: Confirmed to be the last Neighbor. Claimed Town Neighbor, but is very, very likely a Mafia Neighbor (or even Werewolf Neighbor). All he has posted is fluff, with no reads; he's said that his role is "useless" and that all he can do is "vote"... which did on KT today, and believed him to be WW (which is impossible since he's a Mason). Literally an OMGUS vote. His fate is sealed for today.
    Skullmaster4: Claimed Town Retired Godfather. Due to his lack of contributions, I believe him more to be a scum Godfather. Since I read Luke and Sharc as WW more, I have put Skull here - he could be another Mafia Godfather. Before you say "that's impossible, Machine was Mafia GF", remember that the results of one pick does not influence the results of another (this is the Gambler's Fallacy). Howver, I am tempted to let him live simply because of his role - if he does end up being Town, he can't be nightkilled, meaning he could be an asset... but again, since he has no reads on anyone, I do not think he is on our side.

    Likely Alien:
    KT_Mafia_Alt: Is confirmed to be in the Masonry. Claimed Town Mason, but could very well be Alien Mason. I do like his voting patterns, and townie activity. But we have to remember: While someone could appear pro-town, they could very much be pro-alien. This is because they can push on almost anyone they like, since there are only very few Aliens in the game. For some reason, he didn't even vote Peachy yesterday, which is fairly suspicious. I can think of no other possible Alien candidate tbh, so Lunar, you MUST check him tonight.
     
    #6439
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  20. Freeloading

    Freeloading Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,967
    Then get on with it and lynch me if you believe I am a mafia. I'm the same dead or alive
     
    #6440
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